Diesels ‘as we know them’ won’t be here forever

If I owned a small to medium-sized fleet, and wasn’t planning to sell out to one of the big boys, I think my head might be spinning. So much change in the air, like never before. Even the biggest fleets are challenged.

I fear this might lead to complacency as truck operators try to avoid too much change. Especially when it comes to engines and fuels. Dozens of big outfits are diving into the electric option, but the vast majority can’t and are seemingly convinced the good ol’ diesel running on good ol’ diesel juice will be around forever. I’ve probably said it myself, but if so, I was wrong. The thing is, we need to get as close to zero emissions as we can, and as soon as we can. It will be a matter of staying competitive, and some shippers will demand it.

We’ll get a bit closer when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Trucks regulation goes live in 2027 and there’s bound to be a massive pre-buy starting next year. Not surprisingly trucks will get more expensive in the process. ACT Research says we’ll see medium- and heavy-duty vehicle prices rise by 12% to 14% in the next year or so. That’s a big hike at a time when predictable freight can be hard to come by.

Not long after that, depending on where you are and where your trucks travel, you may not be able to buy new diesel-powered trucks even if you could afford them. Some jurisdictions will demand zero-emission trucks, and some OEMs will turn away from building conventional diesels, though not necessarily from internal combustion engines.

California regulators, the most extreme on the continent, have voted to ban the sale of new diesel trucks by 2036 and to require all trucks be zero-emissions by 2042. Now, nobody else is yet going that far, that soon, but the notion that diesels as we know them will be around forever is a myth. The key words in there are “as we know them”.

Not only battery-electric

Will you be forced to consider battery-electric vehicles or, a little later, fuel-cell electric trucks? Not at all. BEVs and conventional diesel vehicles will reach cost parity at some point in the not-so-distant future, but the switch to electric may not make sense for a bunch of reasons, not least because the electric grid in your neck of the woods may not be robust enough. And if that grid makes power by burning fossil fuels, forget it. In that case your electric truck may be emissions-free, but the total “well to wheel” picture is an ugly one – and of no help to our climate goals.

In Canada, Alberta supplies power by using fossil fuels (coal and natural gas); Nova Scotia makes electricity by thermal plants using a mixture of coal, petroleum coke, fuel oil, and natural gas; in Saskatchewan, SaskPower supplies electricity by use of coal-fired plants. All the others, except for the territories, use combinations of hydroelectric, nuclear, and other technologies, not all of them environmentally benign. Witless Ontario Premier Doug Ford is actually planning to build more gas-fired plants. The federal Clean Electricity Regulations, still under development, contain a loophole that exempts gas-plants built before 2025, and the Ontario government is apparently trying to ram through as many as possible before then. If these gas-plant expansion plans go through, emissions from this sector are projected to increase almost 400% by 2030 and over 600% by 2040. Not smart, Dougie.

Renewable fuels and combustion engines

So, if not electric, what? Enter the savior of our beloved internal combustion engines – renewable fuels, namely natural gas and diesel made mostly from biomass. But also renewable propane for some applications. Maybe hydrogen and even ammonia will play a role, injected directly into only slightly modified diesel engines.

All these renewables are presently more expensive than conventional fuels and their availability is limited, but they really are the way forward.

For example, Cummins will introduce its X15N natural gas engine next year, the first natural gas engine designed specifically for heavy-duty and on-highway truck applications. It’s a 15-liter model with power and torque curves that essentially match its diesel counterpart, offering up to 500 hp and 1,850 lb.-ft. of torque while slashing emissions. It may well be the engine that finally throws renewable natural gas, which has been around since the 1990s, into the mainstream. And remember, it will rely on a simple three-way catalyst that weighs just 100 lb. and is packaged like a muffler. No more re-gens. Which is not to mention that it’s 500 lb. lighter than today’s 15-liter diesel.

When operating on renewable natural gas, also known as RNG or biomethane, the X15N engine can significantly reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions… from a 90% reduction to carbon-neutral, or even carbon-negative, depending on the bio-source and waste feedstock used to produce the fuel. 

The point in all this is that nobody can afford to ignore change and assume that the old ways will work forever. The new ways will work better.